Year 9 · Unit 5 · Lesson 3 · teacher page

Teaching: the line of best fit

Students find the mean point, draw a line through it by eye and explain what makes it fit.

Statistics and ProbabilityNo calculator

At a glance. One lesson of about 60 minutes. The mean point, a line through it by eye, equal totals of gaps above and below, and the idea that a good slope makes squared gaps small.

Calculator: no calculator. No calculator is needed: the means are of small whole numbers.

What students will learn

Know

  • The mean point is the mean of the x values and the mean of the y values.
  • A line of best fit passes through the mean point and follows the trend.
  • For such a line the gaps above and below balance.

Understand

  • The line need not pass through any dot.
  • Balance does not choose the slope; following the trend does.

Do

  • Find the mean point.
  • Draw a line of best fit through it by eye.
  • Use a line through the mean point to find y.

MYP assessment criteria

Wording paraphrased. What this lesson gives you evidence for, and what to look for:

The one thing to do with the figure

Ask for the totals above and below at three slopes before they look. They stay equal; that surprises most students.

Then ask which slope is best and why balance did not help. The squared gaps total is smallest near slope 5: that is what “follows the trend” means.

A possible order

5 minWarm-up, then answers.
8 minHook: two lines, one point.
12 minThe figure; predict the totals.
12 minWorked examples; mean point in pairs.
5 minQuestion 1, the check.
13 minYour turn, Levels 1 to 3.
5 minExit ticket, question 9.

The answers

Warm-up6; 13; positive and strong.
Worked examplesMean point (5, 10).
Faded example(3.5, 7.5).
1. What a line of best fit doesB. A uses two dots only; C chases dots rather than the trend.
2. Mean of x6.
3. Mean of y21, so the mean point is (6, 21).
4. Using the line25.
5. Going left of the mean point40.
6. Balancing gaps14.
7. Missing gap2.
8. Choosing the slope2.
9. What must be trueB. A counts dots instead of gaps; C confuses the line with the dots.

What each wrong answer tells you

They giveWhat it usually meansWhat to do
A or C in question 1Thinks the line must touch dots.Ask: if the dots are scattered, can any line touch them all?
5, 30 or 10 in question 2Reports the count, the sum or the largest value.Write sum, then divide by the count.
105, 19 or 29 in question 3Reports the sum, the median or the largest.Write the formula first.
16, 23 or 37 in question 4Uses the wrong step from the mean point.Ask how far x = 8 is from x = 6.
50 or 70 in question 5Moves one unit, or goes the wrong way.Ask: is x = 1 to the left or the right of 4?
0, 8 or 28 in question 6Sums signed gaps, counts dots, or adds both sides.Ask what balance means.
16 in question 7Adds all gap sizes.Add above and below separately.

Questions worth asking

Differentiation

A way in for anyone stuck

Stretch

Students learning in English as an additional language

Pair “mean point” with a sketch of a ringed dot at the centre of a cloud.

WordPlain meaningExample
mean pointthe point whose coordinates are the mean x and the mean y(4, 55)
line of best fita line through the mean point that follows the trend of the dotsslope 5 through (4, 55)
trendthe general direction in which the dots gorising
gapthe vertical distance from a dot to the line3 above the line
squared gapthe gap multiplied by itself, used to judge how well a line fits3 × 3 = 9

Sentence starters for explaining aloud or in writing:

Two things not to say

“Just join the first and last dots.” Those two dots may be unusual.

“The line must have the same number of dots on each side.” Totals balance, not counts.

Questions to set

Extra practice in three tiers, including one question from earlier work for spacing. Every answer has been checked.

1Fluency

The idea on its own, with friendly numbers. Set these first.

  1. Mean pointFind the mean point of (1, 4), (3, 8), (5, 6).
    (3, 6).
  2. UsingA line through (4, 20) has gradient 3. What is y at x = 6?
    26.

2In context

The same idea inside a situation, where the first job is deciding what to calculate.

  1. UsingA line through (10, 50) has gradient 2.5. What is y at x = 6?
    40.
  2. BalanceGaps above add to 12 and gaps below to 9, apart from one dot. How far below is it?
    3 below.

3Challenge

Reasoning, generalizing and working backwards.

  1. ReasoningCan the line of best fit pass through no dot at all? Give a reason.
    Yes: it follows the trend and may pass between the dots.
  2. From Lesson 2Dots within 4 units of a line and dots within 12 of the same line: how many times as wide is the second band?
    3.

Practicalities

Works on a phone or a shared screen. Nothing a student types is saved or sent anywhere.

The slider works with the keyboard and by touch; “Show me the steps” describes four states in words.

On paper: a printed graph and a ruler, with the mean point already marked.