Topic 4.3 · teacher page

Running averages and spread

Answers, and why this lesson is worth teaching before the Higher Level expectation algebra rather than after it.

Why this one comes first

The two sliders do something the rest of this sub-topic does not: they set up Var(aX + b) = a²Var(X) a few lessons early, without any algebra.

Students meeting that result cold are surprised the b disappears, and spend the HL lesson arguing with it. Students who have pushed the top slider and watched the standard deviation refuse to move already know it is true, and only need the notation. If you teach one of these four lessons before starting HL content, make it this one.

The one thing to do with the widget

Move the add slider and ask what happened to the gaps between the points. Nothing. Then move the multiply slider and ask again. Everything stretched. Adding moves, multiplying stretches, and spread only notices the one that stretches.

Answers

QuestionAnswer
1. Add 8 to every mark12. The standard deviation is unchanged.
2. Multiply by 1.581. The mean scales: 54 × 1.5.
3. Skewed dataB, the median, because extreme values do not move it.

Worked example on the student page: the set 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 has mean 8, variance 8 and standard deviation about 2.83.

What each wrong answer tells you

They enterWhat it means
20 (Q1)The one that matters. They added 8 to the standard deviation, which means they are treating spread like position. The page sends them back to the slider rather than restating the rule, because watching it is more convincing than being told.
62 (Q1)They gave the new mean. Method is sound, they answered a different question.
55.5 (Q2)Added 1.5 instead of multiplying. Usually a student working too fast rather than one who does not know.
18 (Q2)They gave the new standard deviation. Again the right work, the wrong question asked.
"The mean" (Q3)They justified it with "it uses every value", which is true and is exactly the problem. Worth saying out loud: the property that makes the mean good normally is the property that makes it bad here.

Notice how many of these are reading errors rather than misconceptions. Worth telling the class: on transformation questions, write down what is being asked for before you calculate anything.

Where the marks go

Transformation questions are cheap marks, lost constantly. One line stating which transformation is happening prevents nearly all of it.

Standard deviation is never negative. If a student produces one, the useful response is not to correct the arithmetic but to ask what quantity they rooted.

Justifying a choice of average needs a feature of the data. "The median, because the data is skewed" earns the mark. "The median, because it is more accurate" does not, and is what most of them will write first.

A possible order

 What is happening
1Both sliders, and the question about the gaps. Do not state the rule before they have seen it.
2Which average and when. Quick, because they have met it before; this is revision.
3The standard deviation worked example by hand. Worth doing once even though the calculator does it, because it explains the squared units.
4Questions 1 and 2. Expect the reading errors above and name them as reading errors.
5Question 3, then forward-link to Var(aX + b) explicitly. Tell them they have already proved it.

Two things not to say

Do not introduce Var(aX + b) = a²Var(X) as a formula to memorise in this lesson. Let the slider be the whole argument. The notation can wait, and it lands far better when they already believe the result.

Do not say "the mean is affected by outliers" as the only reason to prefer a median. It is true and it is thin. Push for which direction and by roughly how much, which is what an examiner is actually after.

Questions to set

Three tiers, ramping the way practice should: the method on its own, then the method inside something real, then a challenge. Set the tier the class in front of you needs rather than one undifferentiated sheet. Answers are given so these can go straight onto a board.

1Fluency

The method on its own, with friendly numbers. Set these first and move on quickly once they are secure.

  1. Mean from a tablex values 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 have frequencies 4, 7, 10, 6, 3. Find the mean.
    Σfx = 117 over n = 30, so the mean is 3.9.
  2. Standard deviationFor the same table, find the standard deviation.
    1.165, from a variance of 1.3567.

2In context

The same skill inside a real situation, where the first job is working out what is being asked.

  1. Interpret in contextTwo Bangkok cafes both average 38 customers an hour. One has standard deviation 4, the other 19. What does that mean for staffing?
    The first is predictable and can be staffed to the average. The second swings between nearly empty and overwhelmed, so the average is the wrong number to staff from.
  2. Effect of an extra valueA set of 9 marks has mean 62. A tenth mark of 20 is added. Find the new mean.
    (9 × 62 + 20) / 10 = 57.8.

3Challenge

Reasoning, working backwards, or spotting an error. These are where the top grades are decided.

  1. Reason without computingA class adds 5 marks to every student's score. State what happens to the mean and to the standard deviation, and why.
    The mean rises by 5; the standard deviation does not change. Spread measures distances between values and shifting everything leaves every distance alone.
  2. Work backwardsA set of 5 numbers has mean 8 and population variance 8. Four of them are 4, 8, 6 and 10. Find the fifth and check it.
    The total must be 40, so the fifth is 12. Checking: deviations −4, 0, −2, 2, 4 give squares 16, 0, 4, 4, 16 summing to 40, and 40 / 5 = 8.

Practicalities

Works on a phone. Nothing a student types is saved or sent anywhere. The standard deviation band drawn on the number line is one standard deviation each side of the mean, so it is a useful thing to point at when the formal definition arrives.